While the world seems preoccupied with the United States' health care debate, the pulp and paper industry is being shaken to it very foundation, at least if you use virgin pulp. The Chilean earthquake was almost directly underneath the Chilean market pulp industry. As Mark Wilde of Deutsche Bank has been reporting, nearly 8% of the world's market pulp manufacturing capacity is shut down and a date for its return to productivity is uncertain. This is going to produce a sea change in 2010 pulp and paper economics, benefiting some, causing pain for others. It is certainly something none of us saw coming. The question is, what other surprises are out there and how can one benefit from them? Perspicacity wins and loses fortunes.